The Expert Peace Initiative and the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict

Introduction

The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has reshaped global geopolitics, igniting tensions in Eastern Europe and beyond. The situation remains complex, with deep historical, political, and economic underpinnings. This document brings together the opinions of experts from around the world on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, analyzes its causes, the consequences of the sanctions policy, and considers possible scenarios for the further development of the conflict. The document also focuses on global geopolitical changes, the impact on Russia, and possible diplomatic initiatives.

On March 11 and 12, the Expert Peace Initiative (EPI) convened a gathering of leading voices in international affairs, diplomacy, and peacebuilding. This event served as a platform for critical discussions on pathways to peace in Ukraine and marked the ratification of a new organization under the EPI name. Dedicated to fostering dialogue to address and resolve conflicts worldwide, this initiative seeks to establish a sustainable framework for international peace efforts.

Causes of the Conflict

The roots of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict lie in a combination of geopolitical ambitions, historical narratives, and security concerns. Putin’s aspirations to restore influence over former Soviet territories have played a central role, particularly in Crimea, which Russia views as a historical possession. Additionally, Russian society has long been united against perceived external threats, with NATO’s expansion fueling anxieties about Western encroachment. The breakdown of collective security agreements, such as the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (2001) and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (2019), has further eroded trust between Russia and the West. These factors have intensified the ideological clash between Western democratic expansion and Russia’s authoritarian governance, deepening geopolitical rivalry. Russia has justified its interventions by citing discrimination against Russian-speaking minorities in Ukraine and the Baltic states, further escalating tensions in the region.

The Effectiveness of Sanctions

In response to Russia’s actions, Western nations imposed sanctions aimed at crippling its economy and military capabilities. While these measures have disrupted Russia’s access to global markets and caused economic strain, they have not significantly weakened its military power. The sanctions have also had unintended consequences, including energy price hikes and economic losses in Europe. Meanwhile, Russia has adapted by restructuring its economy, increasing military production, and forging stronger economic partnerships with China and India. Rather than diminishing domestic support for Putin, sanctions have fueled nationalist sentiment, reinforcing the Kremlin’s narrative of Western aggression. Although sanctions may eventually hinder Russia’s technological advancements, their short-term impact remains limited, raising questions about their overall effectiveness.

How to Strengthen Sanctions

To enhance the effectiveness of sanctions, experts propose a more targeted approach. Instead of broad economic restrictions, sanctions should focus on critical sectors such as advanced technology, finance, and energy. Restricting Russia’s ability to export energy resources while reducing European and Asian dependence on Russian oil and gas would further weaken its financial stability. Additionally, measures must be taken to prevent Russia from bypassing sanctions through third-party countries like China. Experts also recommend recalibrating sanctions to minimize their impact on ordinary Russian citizens, ensuring that economic pressure is primarily directed at government officials and oligarchs. A more dynamic sanctions policy, combining economic pressure with clear incentives for de-escalation, could provide a pathway toward meaningful negotiations.

Possible Future Scenarios

The trajectory of the conflict remains uncertain, with multiple potential outcomes. One possibility is a frozen conflict, where neither side secures a decisive victory, leading to a prolonged stalemate reminiscent of the Korean Peninsula. A more alarming scenario involves nuclear escalation, which, although unlikely, could become a possibility if Russia faces severe territorial losses. If Russia remains unchecked, its ambitions could extend beyond Ukraine to other former Soviet states, though NATO’s presence makes a direct confrontation improbable. In the worst-case scenario, escalating tensions could trigger a direct NATO-Russia conflict, with catastrophic global consequences. On the other hand, a more optimistic scenario envisions a global diplomatic compromise, wherein major world powers negotiate a temporary resolution. However, even in this case, lingering tensions would persist, requiring continued diplomatic engagement.

The Role of the West and Ukraine’s Future

Western support is crucial for Ukraine’s ability to sustain its resistance and rebuild its economy. If Ukraine successfully deepens its ties with Western institutions such as NATO and the EU, it could bolster its long-term security and development. However, political opposition to continued aid in some Western nations poses a challenge, as growing divisions could undermine Ukraine’s military and economic resilience. Experts suggest that a new collective security framework, involving Russia, the West, and influential global players like China, could help create a more stable geopolitical landscape. The extent of Western commitment to Ukraine’s future will significantly shape the broader international order in the years ahead.

Conclusion

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict underscores the fragility of global security systems and the limitations of existing diplomatic tools. While a clear military resolution remains unlikely, a strategic combination of diplomacy, targeted sanctions, and international cooperation could pave the way for a sustainable settlement. As global actors navigate these challenges, the need for a revised international security framework becomes increasingly urgent. Whether through prolonged conflict or negotiated peace, the war’s outcome will have lasting consequences for regional stability and the future of international relations.