The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has sparked international concern, as it reflects Russia’s revisionist ambitions towards the American-led international order. This conflict has been compared to China, a state with strong political ties with Russia and territorial ambitions similar to the situation in Ukraine. China’s ambiguous stance towards the conflict and its reluctance to recognize the conflict as an aggressive war led by Russia have fueled fears and increased tensions. This report aims to understand the potential policy direction of China and the limitations and opportunities it faces in either de-escalating the violence or using the conflict as a roadmap for its ambitions. The report examines China’s economic and political incentives with both Ukraine and Russia, as well as the parallels between Taiwan and Ukraine, to determine if it has the capacity to become a mediator in bringing an end to the conflict.

Categories: China, Russia, Ukraine, War