Introduction
Since 2021, Myanmar has been facing a violent civil war that started when the country’s military performed a coup, overthrew the elected government, and started its rule over the country. The two opponents of this war are the Tatmadaw and the Ethnic Armed Groups. Tatmadaw is the official name of Myanmar’s military that took power in 2021 and now holds control of almost 40 percent of the country after two years of violent repression of the local population.
When it took power in February 2021, the Tatmadaw managed to successfully depose the country’s elected government and arrest its representatives. Since then, the Tatmadaw Commander-in-Chief of Defence Services Min Aung Hlaing has become the leader of the military junta and the ruler of Myanmar.
Ethnic Armed Groups is an umbrella term that identifies numerous armed factions that oppose the military junta’s government. These violent armed groups emerged from the 135 ethnic groups present in Myanmar since 1948, and they were always a threat to the country’s stability. For this reason, over the years, the Burmese government made several unsuccessful attempts to reach a Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement with the armed groups.
After the coup, they unanimously declared war against the Tatmadaw. Although a small number of these armed groups had accepted the Ceasefire Agreement with Myanmar’s government in the past, thus agreeing not to embrace weapons against the government, the government of the military junta was considered illegitimate, and the Armed groups decided to fight against it.
The ruling military junta still holds control despite horrendous human rights violations, while Burmese citizens doubt the armed groups’ actions
During the four-year conflict, the Tatmadaw has perpetrated outstanding acts of non-compliance with International Humanitarian Law and Human Rights Law. These heinous acts, committed by the military junta to extend its control over the whole country, included the extrajudicial killings of more than 6,000 people, the detention of more than 20,000 people, the reenactment of capital punishment, arson attacks, discrimination and persecution against the Rohingya minority, the spread of disinformation, hate speech, airstrikes, forcible transfer of people, and different forms of inhumane treatment. Additionally, the military junta is accused of displacing more than three million people and torturing them, committing indiscriminate attacks, denying humanitarian aid, confiscating food stocks, and perpetrating forced labour and displacement. Burmese refugees describe widespread and systematic attacks against the civilian population, bombing schools, hospitals, and religious buildings, claiming these should also be counted among the committed crimes against humanity.
Notwithstanding these crimes, Myanmar’s military has lost an unprecedented amount of territory across the country to a small coalition of ethnic armed groups, which have captured two regional commands, high-ranking military officers, dozens of towns, and border crossings. Amnesty International reported that the Ethnic Armed Groups who are fighting the military also committed human rights violations, although to a lesser extent. Examples of their crimes include the burning of Rohingya villages and the forced displacement of thousands of Rohingyas from their homes and villages. Aware of the crimes committed, some armed groups have promised to hold the perpetrators – those members of the groups who committed human rights violations – accountable, but it remains to be seen if they will do it in practice and according to the standards of international law.
To better understand the horrific situation Myanmar has been facing for the last two years, it is possible to take a look at an article from the BBC, which details the long siege and deadly fights between the Tatmadaw and the AA Ethnic Armed Group for the control of a village on the border with Bangladesh. The description of the siege and the warfare methods involving land mines, airstrikes, and rifles highlight how both parties to the conflict deploy strategies contrary to international humanitarian law. In fact, during this siege, the Myanmar air force kept bombarding the village, forcing the inhabitants to flee. The fleeing inhabitants are traumatised, and they show wounds and serious injuries, not properly cared for. Furthermore, the article highlights that the old Burmese population of the area was either killed or forced to flee the country.
Interestingly, the AA Armed Group was founded in 2009 by young ethnic Rakhine men who had travelled the country in search of work. Since its creation, the AA has been campaigning for self-government, voicing the Rakhine population’s resentment for their poverty and neglect of their state from the central government.
In return for the support it is getting from the ethnic insurgents, the overthrown government is promising financial benefits and major political power to the armed groups once the junta’s power is defeated. The hope for the overthrown government is to guarantee a safer environment for its rule. It must be noted that the Rohingya minority, often targeted by the attacks of both conflicting parties, is one of Myanmar’s biggest minorities. In particular, it is notable how 2024 has been the year with the most deaths in the Rohingya community, whose villages were targeted by both the Tatmadaw and the Armed groups. The current Rohingya population still living in the country amounts to roughly 600,000 people. However, concerns are raised as there is no certainty of how these people will be treated in case the AA armed group wins the war and expels the Tatmadaw from the country. Hence, Rohingya military groups prefer siding with the Tatmadaw than with the AA, despite the Burmese army’s notorious ill-treatment of the minority. The reason lies in the fact that tens of thousands have been expelled by the AA from towns it has conquered, and not been allowed back.
Although there is still great uncertainty about the situation in Myanmar, certain recommendations have been prepared for the UN and international organisations on how to reduce damages in the country. Firstly, there is a call for Myanmar to comply with international humanitarian law and international justice mechanisms. Secondly, all countries are encouraged to isolate the junta by blocking arms shipments and prosecuting or extraditing any perpetrators. Thirdly, the International Community is encouraged to pursue international justice venues. Additionally, the International Court of Justice (ICC) is encouraged to issue arrest warrants for perpetrators of crimes against humanity during the conflict and ensure that these crimes are prosecuted under international law. Finally, the international community is urged to enforce universal jurisdiction and promote the creation of a “hybrid” justice mechanism that could ensure the right to a fair trial for the perpetrators and justice for the victims. Similarly, the UN stressed the need for cooperation between the Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar, a body established by the UN Human Rights Council to collect and preserve evidence of atrocity crimes in Myanmar and any intervention from the ICC.
The situation in Myanmar has also been discussed during the UN Human Rights Council session from February 24th to April 4th, 2025, allowing UN member states to take an innovative approach to Myanmar and adopt a resolution aimed at stopping the violence in the country.
Conclusion
Even if international institutions are taking steps to solve the situation in Myanmar, the violence in the country increases daily. On the one hand, the Tatmadaw keeps losing territory and becomes more aggressive in maintaining the leadership in the occupied territories; on the other hand, the armed groups, like AA, offer fierce opposition regardless of the Rohingya population, against whom they commit international crimes. As a consequence, the armed groups lose the national consensus and risk international prosecution and charges for the heinous crimes committed in violation of Humanitarian Law and International Human Rights Law.
Bibliography
Amnesty International. (2008). Crimes Against Humanity in eastern Myanmar. Head, J. (2024, December 13). Bloody siege ends Myanmar army control of western border. BBC News. <https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg324den6po> accessed 18 March 2025.
Myanmar: Four years after coup, world must demand accountability for atrocity crimes. (2025, January 31). Amnesty International. <https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2025/01/myanmar-four-years-after-coup-world-must-demand-accountability-for-atrocity-crimes/> accessed 17 March 2025.
My 17-year-old was brutally killed, but I’m glad she fought for freedom. (2024, June 6). BBC News. <https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cydd87gen62o> accessed 17 March 2025.
Graceffo, A. (2024, February 27). Backgrounder: Ethnic Armies in Myanmar Civil War. Geopolitical Monitor. <https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/backgrounder-ethnic-armies-in-the-myanmar-civil-war/> accessed 16 March 2025.
Myanmar: Unlawful attacks resulting in mass casualties to civilians and destruction of infrastructure in Rakhine State must end. International Commission of Jurists. (2024, May 24). ICJ. <https://www.icj.org/myanmar-unlawful-attacks-resulting-in-mass-casualties-to-civilians-and-destruction-of-infrastructure-in-rakhine-state-must-end/> accessed 17 March 2025.
Min Maung. (2024, January 22). Kachin forces capture military camp outside jade-rich town of Hpakant. Myanmar Now. <https://myanmar-now.org/en/news/kachin-forces-capture-military-camp-outside-jade-rich-town-of-hpakant/> accessed 20 March 2025.
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